Just as we were recovering from the long drought and the worst bushfires on record, the global coronavirus pandemic took hold and changed everything.
Suddenly, simple things we took for granted, like going to the office or celebrating special occasions, were put on hold. While life is still not back to normal, Australia is in better shape financially than many people expected at the height of the economic shutdown.
Take superannuation. Far from being a wipeout, the average superannuation growth fund is on track to finish 2020 with a positive return of 3%.i But it’s been a wild ride.
The big picture
Globally, the US presidential election and Joe Biden’s victory removed a major element of uncertainty overhanging global markets. As did the UK finally signing a post-Brexit agreement on trade with the European Union. However, trade tensions with China remain an ongoing concern.
The pandemic dragged an already sluggish global economy into recession, and we were not immune. In Australia, drought, bushfires, storms and the health crisis took their toll as we entered recession in for the first time in 28 years.
Final figures for 2020 are not in yet but an annual fall of 2.8% is forecast, putting us in a better position than most developed nations.ii This is due in part to Australia’s relative success at containing COVID-19, and massive financial support from Federal and State Governments and the Reserve Bank.
Interest rates lower for longer
After starting the year at 0.75%, the official cash rate finished at an historic low of 0.1 per cent. The Reserve Bank has indicated it will keep the cash rate and 3-year government bond rate at this level for three years to encourage businesses to invest and individuals to spend.iii
While low interest rates make life difficult for retirees and others who depend on income from bank deposits, they gave share and property markets a boost in 2020 as investors looked for higher returns than cash.
Shares rebound strongly
In February/March when the scale of the health and economic crisis became evident, share markets plunged around 35%. As borders and businesses closed and commodity prices collapsed, investors rushed for safe-haven investments such as bonds and gold.
But it soon became apparent that there were economic winners as well as losers, with global technology and health stocks the main beneficiaries.
By the end of 2020, US shares were up 16%, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq index up 48%.iv
Closer to home, the Australian All Ordinaries index was up 0.7%, or 3.6% when dividends are included.
Elsewhere, European markets were mostly lower reflecting their poor handling of the pandemic. While China and Japan performed strongly, up 14% and 16% respectively.
Commodities boost the Aussie dollar
China’s economic rebound was another factor in the Australian market’s favour, with iron ore prices jumping 70%. Rising iron ore prices and a weaker US dollar pushed the Aussie dollar up 10% to close the year at US77c.vi
At the other end of the scale, oil was one of the biggest losers as economic activity and transport ground to a halt. Oil prices fell more than 20 per cent despite OPEC producers restricting supply.
Property surprises on the upside
Despite dire predictions of a property market collapse earlier in the year, residential property values rose 3% in 2020 and 6.6% when rental income is included.vii
Melbourne was the only city to record a price fall (down 1.3%), with combined capital cities up 2%.
The real action though was in regional areas where average prices lifted 6.9%.
Looking ahead
As 2021 gets underway, Australia is inching back to a new normal on growing optimism about the global rollout of vaccines.
Our economy is forecast to grow by 5% this year, but there are bound to be bumps along the way.viii In the meantime, the government stands ready to continue stimulus measures to support jobs and the economy.
After the year that was, a return to something close to normal can’t come quick enough.
i https://www.chantwest.com.au/resources/november-surge-drives-funds-into-black-for-2020
ii https://www.commsec.com.au/content/dam/EN/ResearchNews/2021Reports/January
iv https://tradingeconomics.com/stocks
v https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities
vi https://tradingeconomics.com/currencies
viii https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/gdp-growth-annual