The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to cut official interest rates is good news for anyone with a mortgage or hoping to buy their first home, but presents a challenge for savers. Whatever your personal situation, the question now is how to make the most of falling rates.
On 2 July 2019, the RBA of cut the official cash rate for the second month in a row by 25 basis points. This second rate cut saw rates falling from 1.25% to 1%, the lowest on record. Many economists predict further cuts, with some suggesting rates could fall to as little as 0.5%.
Just how low rates go will depend on the broader economy. Growth in the three months to March was up just 0.4%, or 1.8% over the year. The RBA is also concerned about sluggish wage growth, unemployment stuck at around 5% and inflation of 1.3% well below its target 2-3% range.
Rather than wait to see how low rates will go, there are things you can do now to take advantage of lower rates or minimise their impact, depending on your personal circumstances.
Grab a better home loan deal
Many banks moved quickly to cut home loan interest rates in the days following the RBA’s move, although not all of them passed on the full amount.
The average standard variable rate offered by the big four banks is now between 4.92 and 4.98%, saving the majority of variable rate homeowners over $100 a month.i
The big four also cut their discount rates, while some smaller lenders are offering rates as low as 2.89%. The lowest one year fixed rate is below 3%.
While house prices and interest rates continue to fall, the stars could finally be aligning for Australians wanting to buy their first home.
The Australian Regulation Prudential Authority (APRA) plans to relax the minimum 7% interest rate banks are required to use when assessing borrowers’ ability to service a home loan.
Also, the Morrison government proposes low deposit financing for eligible first home buyers who save a deposit of as little as 5% up to 20% to purchase property.
For people with existing home loans, it’s time to check whether you are getting a good deal from your lender. If not, ring them to negotiate a lower rate and be prepared to shop around if they won’t budge.
The outlook for savers
Lower interest rates can be more challenging for savers. That includes anyone with a savings account as well as retirees who depend on the income from term deposits to help with living expenses.
Term deposit rates are likely to head south of 2%. The best interest rate for $10,000 invested in a one year term deposit is currently around 2.5%.
Banks have also been cutting rates on their online savings accounts. The best rates on offer are currently around 3% for the first four months, before dropping to a base rate around half that, so shop around and read the terms and conditions.
The hunt for yield
If you have a longer time horizon, growth assets such as shares and property can provide regular income. If you can ride out the short term fluctuations in share and property prices, the income they provide in the form of dividends (shares) and rent (property) tend to be more stable and reliable.
The national average rental yield on Australian residential property is sitting at around 4.1%.ii Coincidentally, Australian shares currently provide an average dividend yield of 4% (7% after franking) but many quality companies pay more.iii
For example, the big four banks currently offer dividend yields of between 5.2 and 6.8%. After franking credits are included, the yields grow to 7.5 and 9.7% respectively.
Whether you plan to borrow or pump up your income, falling interest rates offer opportunities and challenges. If you would like to discuss the impact of lower rates on your investment strategy, give us a call on 03 5434 7600.
i ABC, 3 July 2019, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-03/what-the-rate-cuts-mean-for-you/11273500
ii CoreLogic, 1 June 2019, https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2019-06/CoreLogic%20home%20value%20index%20JUNE%20FINAL.pdf
iii AFR share online market tables, 24 June 2019